Reading a range before expiry week arrives

Expiry week has a reputation it only partly deserves. Spreads widen. People who do not usually watch the name appear in the last two sessions. In Bangkok, the TFEX calendar is on the wall for a reason: we do not pretend Thursday is a secret.

What expiry does not do is draw a floor that was not already visible on the daily. If the underlying has been travelling between two obvious swing points for a fortnight, Thursday is still that range until it is not. Students who skip the daily and jump to a five-minute opening drive often treat the first spike as a breakout because the calendar feels loud.

In week three of the evening series we take the same name we used in week one and overlay the expiry dates as faint verticals — not as trade signals, as weather. Then we mark the range as if the calendar were blank. The exercise is rude on purpose. Most of the room discovers their ‘expiry setup’ was a retest of a perfectly ordinary boundary.

When the range is finished, we allow a second conversation: does the coming expiry make sitting out wiser, because the location is the middle? That is a chart answer. It is not a reason to hunt a cheap contract in the centre of the pack. If this is the week that usually costs you premium, bring those dates to a chart review hour and we will mark them against the daily you actually had.

Ask about a sitting if the note describes a habit you want in the room rather than on the page.